Carlos Alcaraz faces nightmare scenario as road to world no.1 blocked despite Japan Open win
Carlos Alcaraz’s hopes of reclaiming his spot as world number one have come to a halt as the top spot for the remainder of the year is already secured.
On Tuesday, Alcaraz finally got things back on track as he claimed his first trophy since returning from a four-month injury in the final of the Japan Open, beating world No. 19 Jiri Lehecka to defend his title.
Crucially, the win helps the Spaniard climb slightly closer to world number one having lost it in April, but he’s not going to be reclaiming his title any time soon.
Why Carlos Alcaraz won’t be world number one again in 2026
As it stands, Jannik Sinner remains the ATP Tour world No 1, but the Italian is set to lose this spot before the end of the year after announcing that he had decided to end his season early.
The Italian has not played competitively since defending his Wimbledon title in July and confirmed that he “needed to think about my long-term career” and undergo treatment for his ongoing right knee injury.
Because of this, Sinner will lose his spot on top of the sport, with Alexander Zverev set to become the 30th ATP Tour world No 1.
Sinner will lose over 3000 ranking points due to withdrawing from the Shanghai Masters, Paris Masters, the Vienna Open, and the ATP Finals, leaving his season-total ranking points frozen at 7,950.
Meanwhile, Zverev is currently sitting with 8,760 points this season, currently placing him behind only Sinner in the ATP rankings following his first major title wins at Roland Garros and the US Open.
With these season totals becoming the basis of the year-end ranking when the remaining 2025 points expire, it is now guranteed that Zverev will be ranked ahead of Sinner heading into next year, with it simply being a matter of when based on the German’s upcoming results.
However, it also means that Zvervev has secured the spot of world number one as his closest competitors, Ben Shelton and Alcaraz, cannot catch up.
As it stands, Shelton is on 4,440 points this year, and so even if he defied the odds massively and won in Shanghai, Paris, Basel before going a perfect 5-0 at the ATP Finals he would still fall short with a maximum of 8,440 points.
Likewise for Alcaraz, if he were to continue his recent form and secure a flawless run through Tokyo, Shanghai, Paris, and Turin, he would still be behind Zverev with 8,050 points.
Of course, both of these scenarios rely on neither Shelton nor Alcaraz unexpectedly deciding to register at the last minute for more ATP Events before the end of the year.
For example, if Alcaraz were able to enter and win Vienna (500) and an ATP 250 as well as going on an unbeaten run, that would put him on 8,810 points which would take him ahead of Zverev’s current total.
But the Spaniard has not said anything to suggest that he would enter these events, and it’s also likely that Zverev’s points total will continue to increase before the end of the year.
Alexander Zverev speaks out ahead of becoming world no.1
With a career-high ranking now on the horizon, Zverev spoke out about becoming the top player in the world while at the Shanghai Masters.
“I think I yeah it’s definitely talking point. There’s no secret about it. It’s a definitely talking point for everybody at the moment,” he said.
“But for me, yeah, I mean, I’m motivated to keep playing. I’m motivated to keep fighting for for good things hopefully. And the only thing that I can control is what I do on the court and my next match.
“And that’s what my focus is on every single time,” said the current world No 2. “And that’s what my motivation is on as well.”
The current world no.2 will play the winner of Wu Yibing and Michael Zheng in the second round of the Shanghai Masters.
